The purpose of this study is to determine why intelligence officers acting as battalion S-2 have difficulty predicting the enemy. It hypothesizes that two causes: lack of experience of the principal officers conducting IPB and inadequate emphasis...
This monograph finds that the US Army's decision making process taught in its schools and branch courses relies too heavily on an iterative analytical method called the Deliberate Decision Making Process or DDMP. Within this process there exists a...
The art and science of military intelligence analysis has been scrutinized for its accuracy and value since the beginning of warfare. With every advance in technology and information processing, the delta between the trained cognitive capabilities...
Why has an S2 never won a wargame when playing predicted enemy courses of action against a friendly course of action during the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP)? Why did the V Corps commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) respond to...
This monograph examines the ability of intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) to provide predictive intelligence. IPB is the foundation of tactical intelligence and plays a major role in tactical planning prior to the battle. There is a...
This study contrasts two opposing theories which have shaped the U.S. Army's tactical intelligence process since 1940. One theory holds that the best kind of tactical intelligence is predictive in nature. The other theory states that tactical...
The construct for predictive analysis is based on the unfounded assumption that technologies and sound analysis will dissipate uncertainty in war. U.S. military doctrine shows an expectation for prediction from the intelligence process; it assumes...
This monograph discusses the nature of tactical intelligence prediction in military operations. Such prediction is extremely complex and involves a broad range of factors from traditional military ones such as terrain and doctrine to more...
Technology has significantly enhanced our ability to detect and monitor the health and condition of critical components in Army aviation. By combining these technological advances with the existing systems for vibration analysis, we have developed...
This monograph assesses the process of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) for humanitarian assistance operations. Three case studies of operations conducted overseas for which humanitarian assistance was the primary focus serve as...
From the Classical Period until the Seventeenth century, the study of warfare was practiced predominantly using the vehicle of history. The scientific revolution, ushered in by Newtonian laws, had a major impact on Western military thinking. By...
Military practitioners are often asked to make plans that could have enormous strategic effects without having a good understanding of their operational environment. It is exactly this relationship between the plan, the environment, and the end...
This monograph examines the effectiveness of intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) at battalion level. The U.S. Army's current warfighting doctrine, AirLand Battle, relies heavily on intelligence. For more than a decade, IPB has been...
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) is a graphic method of depicting on a map the military effects of terrain, weather, and enemy forces. Initially designed as an intelligence analysis and dissemination tool, soldiers first used IPB...
The Department of Defense is also in the process of reevaluating its contribution to homeland security in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Of particular concern is the DoD plan for assisting civilian authorities in consequence management...
The strategic and operational environment in which the United States military will operate in for the foreseeable future is characterized by its complexity. Historically the United States military has taken a linear approach to understanding the...
In August 2010, the U.S. Army published The United States Army Operating Concept 2016-2028 (AOC). The AOC attempts to forecast the Army's future capability requirements based on analysis of possible threats. In past and current deployments, the...
As an enabler to the most dominant land force in the world, engineers allow maneuver forces to close with and destroy the enemy. The concept of assured mobility uses a framework to increase situational understanding and results in a greater freedom...
This monograph began as an investigation to determine if either Effects-Based Operations (EBO) or Systemic Operational Design (SOD) should replace the traditional Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP). It soon became clear that the approaches do...
This monograph explores the truism that "No plan survives first contact with the enemy". Why do commanders and staff officers continue to plan in great detail when the results of the Combat Training Centers and other events continue to reinforce...