The construct for predictive analysis is based on the unfounded assumption that technologies and sound analysis will dissipate uncertainty in war. U.S. military doctrine shows an expectation for prediction from the intelligence process; it assumes...
It is dangerous to assume that in today's operating environment, a universally accepted definition of what war is, and what war is not, is readily available. While most Soldiers and policy makers claim to know war, "knowing it when they see it," is...
Complexity theory has attracted considerable interest from operational artists in recent times. However, because it is still an emerging field, there are few -- if any -- historical case studies that show how complexity applies to military...
This monograph discusses the components and characteristics of decision-making that are necessary to achieve the tactical agility required in AirLand Battle. As one of the four tenets of AirLine Doctrine, agility - the ability to decide and act...
The strategic and operational environment in which the United States military will operate in for the foreseeable future is characterized by its complexity. Historically the United States military has taken a linear approach to understanding the...
The art and science of military intelligence analysis has been scrutinized for its accuracy and value since the beginning of warfare. With every advance in technology and information processing, the delta between the trained cognitive capabilities...
This monograph offers a definition of "military art," discusses military art's relationship to the commander's management of battlefield uncertainty, and uncertainty's relationship to nonlinearity. Using the terms of art, uncertainty, and...
This monograph discusses offensive indirect fire tactics and their relationship to extreme fear responses. It examines the nature and causes of a specific, immediate, and debilitating fear response called the Combat Stress Reaction (CSR)....
This monograph examines the question can modern metaphors, based on late twentieth century nonlinear scientific thought, better explain concepts described by Clausewitz, using early nineteenth century linear scientific thought. Clausewitz...
German Army Transformation will face a critical period after the structural "New Army" reform in 2010. Political and military directives charter the Army to adopt and create capabilities for mission success in the contemporary and future...
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relevance of Adaptive Campaigning to recent Australian Army operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The context for Adaptive Campaigning is set by reviewing Australia's way of warfare and the evolution of...
The bifurcation of global threats since the collapse of the bipolar paradigm, as well as technological proliferation has heightened uncertainty in US Army operations. This uncertainty has manifested in adversaries with broader capabilities to...
The Army National Guard formed the basis of America's expeditionary capability until the Congress approved maintaining a standing army following World War II. During the interim period, the Department of Defense classified the Army National Guard...
This monograph discusses the use of the U.S. Southern Command Small Wars Operational Research Directorate (SWORD) model along with traditional intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) to forecast the direction of intra-state conflicts at...
This study investigates the degree to which conventional infantry battalions (light, mechanized, airborne, and air assault) are conducting realistic home-station unit training to prepare soldiers to face a willing and able foe. The study analyzes...
In February 1991, the Allied Coalition forces led by the U.S. achieved a stunning victory over the Iraqi forces in the Persian Gulf War. Did the U.S. Military validate the Army's new Airland Battle doctrine with its emphasis on maneuver warfare...
The latest U. S. Army doctrine calls for quick, decisive victory with minimum casualties. Historically, simultaneity has provided a means of doing this. However, current trends are making it increasingly likely that non-linear operations will be...
Based upon observations from the Combat Training Centers, military staffs are ineffective at tactical war gaming and thus the war game rarely contributes to effective decision-making. While war gaming is generally recognized as a weakness among...
This work proposes a novel approach to military transformation, 'Adaptive Transformation,' that accounts for an inescapable reality in the current and future operational environment: uncertainty. Military planners and decision makers have to face...
In 2004, the Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr released a concept for the realignment of field grade officer development. The concept claims to respond to the requirements of the contemporary and future operating environment and attempts to ensure...